Certificate Repurchase in 2027: Limits, Carry-Forward and Cancellation Risk

From 1 February 2027, authorised CBAM declarants buy CBAM certificates on the common central platform. Verified actual emissions are usually only available after year-end, so many purchases will be based on estimates, and some certificates will turn out to be surplus. This article explains how CBAM certificate repurchase works under Article 23 of the CBAM Regulation, where its limits lie and when unused certificates are cancelled.

Why surplus certificates are likely

During the year, certificate purchases have to be based on an estimate. The quarterly holding requirement makes this unavoidable: declarants must hold certificates before the final emissions figures for the year are known.

Many importers will base that estimate on default values. Verified actual emissions usually cover a full calendar year and only become available after year-end. If the verified actual emissions are lower than the default-based estimate, fewer certificates have to be surrendered than were bought.

Purchasing certificates on a default-based estimate does not fix the figures for the annual declaration. Verified actual emissions can still be used in the declaration, provided they meet the applicable CBAM calculation and verification requirements. The question is what happens to the certificates that are no longer needed.

The quarterly holding requirement under Article 22(2)

From 2027, authorised CBAM declarants must hold certificates at the end of each quarter covering at least 50% of the embedded emissions of goods imported since the start of the calendar year. Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 reduced this threshold from 80% to 50%.

The minimum balance can be calculated in one of two ways:

Default values without the mark-up, taking free allocation into account.
Previous surrender data, where the conditions of Article 22(2)(b) are met.

The second option appears unavailable at least until the first annual declaration, covering 2026 imports, has been submitted and the certificates surrendered. Whether it can then be used during 2027 is not yet clear, because the provision refers to a declaration submitted in the preceding calendar year.

The method matters beyond the quarterly balance. It also determines how many certificates can later be repurchased.

How CBAM certificate repurchase works under Article 23

After the annual surrender, surplus certificates can be repurchased on request at the price originally paid for them. The number of certificates eligible for repurchase is limited to the number the declarant was required to buy to meet the quarterly holding requirement under Article 22(2) during the year of purchase.

Two points follow from this:

Voluntary purchases do not raise the cap. Buying more certificates than the quarterly holding requirement demands does not increase the number that can be repurchased.
The cap is usually below half of the default-based liability. Where the holding requirement is calculated with default values, the mark-up is excluded and free allocation is deducted. The resulting cap is therefore generally lower than 50% of the full default-based annual liability.

One exception applies to the mass-based threshold. Where a declarant bought certificates because it expected to exceed the 50-tonne threshold but did not, all of those certificates can be repurchased on request.

Worked example: 1,000 certificates bought in 2027

An importer buys 1,000 certificates in 2027 to cover its 2027 imports. The applicable repurchase cap is assumed to be 400 certificates. The actual cap has to be calculated for the imports concerned.

Final surrender requirement	Surplus after surrender	Eligible for repurchase	Balance carried forward
1,000	0	0	0
700	300	300	0
400	600	400	200
200	800	400	400

As long as the surplus stays within the cap, all of it can be repurchased. Once the surplus exceeds the cap, the difference has to be carried forward.

Carry-forward and cancellation under Article 24

Certificates above the repurchase cap are not lost immediately. They can be used for the following reporting period, provided there is enough liability in that period to absorb them.

Under Article 24(1), certificates that remain in the registry account on 1 November of the second year after purchase are cancelled without compensation. Cancellation is suspended to the extent of the disputed amount while a dispute over the number of certificates to surrender is pending in a Member State.

For certificates bought in 2027 to cover 2027 imports, the timeline is:

Date	Event
30 September 2028	Deadline for the annual declaration for 2027 imports and surrender of certificates
31 October 2028	Deadline to request repurchase of eligible surplus certificates
30 September 2029	Surrender deadline for 2028 imports; carried-forward certificates can still be used
1 November 2029	Certificates bought in 2027 that remain in the account are cancelled without compensation

In the example above, assume 200 certificates are carried forward and 50 are used for 2028 imports. The remaining 150 would be cancelled on 1 November 2029. At an illustrative purchase price of €80 per certificate, this represents a loss of €12,000.

The first cycle: certificates bought in 2027 for 2026 imports

The first cycle follows different rules. Certificates bought in 2027 for 2026 embedded emissions are priced at the quarterly average price for the quarter of import, not at the weekly price that applies from 2027. Under Article 23(2a), they can only be repurchased in 2027. Under Article 24, they are cancelled on 1 November 2027 if they remain in the account after surrender and repurchase.

The window between the surrender deadline on 30 September 2027 and cancellation on 1 November 2027 is therefore very short.

When the financial risk arises

The risk of losing money on certificates arises only when two conditions are met at the same time:

The surplus after surrender exceeds the repurchase cap.
The remaining certificates cannot be used in the following reporting period before the cancellation date.

The second condition becomes relevant when import volumes fall, when embedded emissions drop because of new supplier data or a change of supplier, or when a company stops importing CBAM goods altogether.

What to consider when planning purchases

A purchasing strategy for 2027 has to weigh several factors against each other:

Price exposure. Buying early fixes the price; buying late depends on the weekly price at the time.
Availability of verified data. The earlier verified actual emissions are available from suppliers, the closer purchases can follow the real liability.
Repurchase cap. The cap depends on the method used to calculate the quarterly holding requirement.
Cancellation risk. Expected import volumes for the following year determine how much surplus can be absorbed.

Supplier data is the factor companies can influence most directly. Verified emissions data from production installations reduce the reliance on default values and, with it, the size of a potential surplus.

Open points

Operational details for the sale and repurchase of certificates on the common central platform are set out in a draft delegated regulation the Commission published on 9 July 2026. Until it is adopted, details such as the number of repurchase requests per year may still change. Whether previous surrender data can be used to calculate the 2027 quarterly holding requirement also needs clarification.

Some important FAQs

What is CBAM certificate repurchase? CBAM certificate repurchase is the mechanism under Article 23 of the CBAM Regulation that allows authorised CBAM declarants to sell surplus certificates back at their original purchase price after the annual surrender. The number of certificates eligible for repurchase is capped, and the request is due by 31 October of the year of surrender.

Can actual emissions be used in the annual declaration if certificates were bought using default values? Yes. Buying certificates on a default-based estimate does not fix the figures for the declaration. Verified actual emissions can be used, provided they meet the CBAM calculation and verification requirements.

What happens to certificates above the repurchase cap? They can be used in the following reporting period. If they are still in the account on the cancellation date, they are cancelled without compensation.

Does the quarterly holding requirement apply in 2026? No. The quarterly holding requirement of 50% applies from 2027.

Conclusion

CBAM certificate repurchase limits the cost of over-purchasing, but it does not remove it. Surplus certificates can be sold back at their original price only up to a cap linked to the quarterly holding requirement. Certificates above the cap can be carried forward for one further reporting period and are cancelled without compensation if they remain unused. Early, verified emissions data from suppliers is the most effective way to keep purchases close to the actual liability.

Key facts

Legal basis: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM Regulation), Articles 22 to 24, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083.
Certificate sales start on 1 February 2027.
From 2027, declarants must hold certificates covering at least 50% of year-to-date embedded emissions at the end of each quarter (Article 22(2)).
Surplus certificates can be repurchased at the original purchase price, up to a cap (Article 23).
The repurchase request is due by 31 October of the year of surrender.
Unused certificates are cancelled without compensation on 1 November of the second year after purchase (Article 24).
For 2027 imports: surrender by 30 September 2028, repurchase request by 31 October 2028, cancellation on 1 November 2029.